Donald Trump’s election as president could have a profound effect on Canadian trade, manufacturing and immigration.
Trump’s icy relationship with Justin Trudeau could aggravate what already promises to be a very difficult situation for Canada, socially, economically and environmentally.
When Trump was last in power, he started making life much more difficult for asylum seekers in the United States. Seeing a political advantage in the contrast, Justin Trudeau famously tweeted #WelcometoCanada in January, 2017.
What followed was a massive influx of asylum seekers who arrived mostly through an irregular border crossing at Roxham Road, south of Montreal. It quickly became a political hotspot that exacerbated relations between the Quebec provincial government and Ottawa.
After years of refusing to see the problem, Trudeau was finally forced to act, but the unplanned massive increase in new arrivals, including those now pouring in from the U.S., became a major cause of the decline of his political fortunes across our country.
Trudeau had bought into a theory that Canada should aim to have a population of 100 million by the end of the century. The problem was, this massive increase in our population (from 36 million when Trudeau came to power in 2015, to nearly 42 million today) came with no planning for health and educational services and, especially, no thought as to the effect it could have on the availability and affordability of housing in Canada.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have been feasting on that failure and it has contributed mightily to their increased support among Canadians.
That influx into Canada, provoked by Trump and exacerbated by Trudeau, could become a tsunami of new arrivals in Trump’s second term. If, as he’s promised to do, Trump shuts down his southern border and starts expelling illegal aliens and asylum seekers, Canada could see even larger numbers crossing our own border.
Canada will rightfully treat asylum seekers in accordance with our international obligations, but the political price in Canada could be very high.
Trump has also promised to increase tariffs on manufactured goods entering the United States. That could potentially hurt all provinces, but Quebec and Ontario could be particularly hard hit. Not good news for Trudeau who keeps swearing that he’s running in the next election.
The Beauce region of Quebec, south of Quebec City, runs to the U.S. border. It has traditionally tended to vote Conservative more than the rest of the province. Proximity to the U.S. and a very entrepreneurial mindset are part of the reasons for this region’s distinctiveness.
It will be interesting to see if voters in other regions turn to the Conservatives as a bulwark against Trump’s plans.
Several Liberals I’ve spoken with have expressed the view that Canadians would want to keep Trudeau as prime minister, because he would provide such a stark contrast to Trump.
That’s wishful thinking. When Trump made his one and only trip to Canada, to a G-7 meeting in Charlevoix, Que., Trudeau decided to take potshots at Trump right after he left the meeting.
Problem for Trudeau was that Trump was still on Air Force One and heard his remarks. He derided Trudeau for having been nice to him, face to face, then carping about him once his back was turned.
Trump has a very long enemies list and Trudeau has been on it ever since. Trudeau biographer Stephen Maher nailed it when he described Trudeau’s penchant for “pious scolding.” The thought that Trudeau’s continued scolding of Trump and his policies could somehow be helpful to Canada, seems deluded.
Canada and the United States share a unique, extremely close history and geography. Our economies are also intimately intertwined.
Trump’s disdain for environmental protection will, predictably, be at odds even with Trudeau’s meagre attempts to do something to reduce greenhouse gases in Canada. Trump will see our fossil fuel resources as his own and Trudeau will be singularly ill-equipped to do anything about it.
We’re a long way from Mulroney and Bush coming together to fight acid rain.
The coming months will start to provide key indicators as to what’s actually on the horizon in Canada-U.S. relations.
The people Trump chooses to handle key files will provide clues as to how things will play out.
In the meantime, pressure will continue to grow for Trudeau to finally step down and give a new Liberal leader a chance to at least try to develop a less mistrustful relationship with the new American administration.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017
