Canada’s ability to sell oil in markets outside of the United States has paid off big time so far, underscoring the urgent need for more pipelines to coastal waters, says a report from public policy think tank MEI.
A separate study released Thursday, from climate policy non-profit Clean Prosperity, agrees the oilsands industry will reap big profits from a potential new pipeline to the West Coast — far offsetting an increase in the industrial carbon price.
The MEI report said the average price-gap between light U.S. and heavy Alberta crude blends narrowed by 37.5 per cent between the 18-month lead-up to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion’s completion in 2024 and the 18 months that followed.
That resulted in a US$16.7-billion boost to industry revenues between June 2024 and November 2025.
“The reduction in the spread means that it is becoming possible to approach the full value of our resources, which helps Canadian firms, but also increases government revenues,” MEI senior policy analyst Gabriel Giguère said in a news release.
Before the Trans Mountain expansion started up, non-U.S. Canadian oil exports made up only three per cent of the total, but that proportion grew to 14 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“The global demand for Canadian energy is very real, and new infrastructure has already demonstrated its benefits,” Giguère said.
“It is urgent that governments remove the regulatory obstacles that obstruct the construction of new energy infrastructure.”
The reports come as the Alberta government prepares a regulatory application for a new oil pipeline to the northern British Columbia coast that would enable up to one million barrels of oilsands crude to be exported to Asia.
A sweeping energy accord signed between the Alberta and federal governments late last year set out conditions that would see such a project move ahead, though no private-sector firm has stepped forward to take the reins.
The memorandum of understanding includes a minimum industrial carbon price of $130 per tonne, up from $95. An agreement on how it will be implemented is to be reached by April 1. Premier Danielle Smith said Wednesday that officials from both governments are still hammering out the details.
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Clean Prosperity said in its analysis that oilsands producers should be able to easily recoup the added carbon costs, because their product would be able to sell for far more if a new West Coast pipeline enabled more exports to Asia.
“Clean Prosperity’s modelling shows that the federal-Alberta grand bargain is not just a climate breakthrough, but can also deliver a massive economic tailwind,” said Benjamin Dachis, Clean Prosperity’s vice-president of research and outreach.
The group looked at the carbon intensity at four oilsands operations: Cenovus Energy’s Christina Lake operation, Suncor Energy’s Firebag site and the Cold Lake and Kearl projects run by Imperial Oil.
It found that under the carbon price increase set out in the MOU, costs at those facilities would increase to between 81 cents and $3.75 per barrel at the time a new pipeline is likely to come online, from between 53 cents to $2.46 per barrel under the current price.
That increase is far outweighed by a more than $10-per-barrel profitability boost as the differential between West Texas Intermediate and Western Canadian Select crude narrows.
In all, Clean Prosperity said net profits at the four oilsands facilities it studied would increase by more than $3 billion in the 15 years following the opening of a new pipeline, while Alberta government royalties would rise by $957 million.
Those in favour of a new West Coast pipeline have argued recent geopolitical instability, like the war engulfing much of the Middle East in recent weeks, makes it all the more important for Canada to send its oil and gas to global markets.
But others have argued the upheaval highlights the need to get off fossil fuels altogether.
“The current conflicts have revealed the inherent vulnerability of relying on oil and gas,” Keith Stewart, senior strategist at Greenpeace Canada, said earlier this week.
“Oil-importing nations are accelerating the transition to renewable energy because they are now cheaper than fossil fuels and you can’t blockade the wind or the sun. A greener world is a safer and more affordable world.”
© 2026 The Canadian Press
