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Even though he won’t be there, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump will loom over talks at two global summits in South America this week.
When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in Peru and the G-20 Summit, he and other world leaders face the possibility their priorities for both meetings will be unraveled by Trump after his inauguration in January.
In a news release from his office, the Prime Minister said that throughout the trip, he “will advocate for peace, democracy, and the rules-based international order.”
But Canada’s biggest ally has just elected a president who will usher in economic uncertainty through his “America first” protectionist policies. Trump has said he wants to implement 10-20 per cent tariffs on all imports. And as much as 60 per cent tariffs on China.
Trump has mused about not defending NATO allies that don’t meet defence-spending requirements and plans to renegotiate the free trade agreement between Canada-U.S. and Mexico.
The president-elect has called climate change -a hoax and says he will pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, signed by 196 nations that committed to reducing carbon emissions.
Shift in priorities
This year’s APEC theme in Peru is: Empower. Include. Grow.
The weekend conference in Lima presents an opportunity for Trudeau to speak to the 20 other APEC leaders about growing trade which is key to Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy and the goal of reducing reliance on Chinese goods.
Next week in Brazil at the G-20 meeting in Rio De Janeiro – Trudeau is expected to lobby members who belong to NATO to formally invite Ukraine to join the military alliance.
After Trudeau spoke to the Ukrainian President on Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on “X” – that “Ukraine counts on Canada to continue advocating for the first point of the Victory Plan – our invitation to NATO.”
Zelenskyy said he had asked the Prime Minister to keep “working with allies” in multilateral formats and in direct talks.
U.S. President Joe Biden, left, and Peru’s Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzen wave on the airport tarmac after Biden’s arrival for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Lima, Peru, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. (Guadalupe Pardo / The Associated Press)
Trump has previously said that he wants to move quickly to negotiate a peace deal, which could torpedo continued Western support for a Ukrainian victory over Russia.
The Trudeau government was already preparing to navigate ongoing tensions with China’s President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at this year’s back-to-back summits, but now must also find ways to shield Canada from Trump’s blanket tariffs.
Canadian officials say that they don’t expect Trump’s election to change formal agendas but they do expect it to dominate discussions in bilateral meetings and hallway conversations between leaders.
Economic Coercion
Analysts say Canada’s desire to work through organizations that set common rules to grow trade, while protecting the environment and promoting human rights could clash with a Trumpian future that puts America first before international priorities.
Christopher Sands, Director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute says Trump will prefer negotiating with countries one-on-one, in situations where the U.S. can dominate.
“President Trump likes to be a winner. He likes to win the day…on trade agreements – he may choose to go bilaterally so he has maximum leverage.”
Despite the threat, Sands says Canadians can take some heart that the government is much better prepared this time for a Trump administration. But in 2016, the first-term-Trump team was disorganized. This time around, his circle is moving with much more efficiency.
One week after winning the election, the former president has already named several members of his cabinet. Their aim is implement as many of Trump’s policies within his first 100 days in office.
Former diplomat and NAFTA negotiator Deanna Horton says she’s concerned Canada, which had aligned itself with U.S. interests against China during President Joe Biden’s administration, will now face economic and trade coercion from both Xi and Trump.
Horton says protecting Canada’s interests will require appealing to Trump’s nature and finding “new friends” with common ties to prevent being bullied during negotiations.
“Institutions are morphing. And it will become much more transactional. Mini-lateral as opposed to multilateral,” said Horton, a distinguished fellow with Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs. “I would focus on Asia – specifically Japan and South Korea…they are countries with similar economic backgrounds with shared interests including the Arctic.”
While Canada pursues new allegiances abroad to deal with Trump, University of Ottawa law professor Errol Mendes says federal, provincial officials should form a common front regardless of political stripe.
“There should be much more consideration of cross-party teams working together. If we’re going to have a team Canada approach to the Trump administration, it should include all parties and be able to come up with solutions.
Mendes, who has advised governments on international law and human rights, says Canada must fight back.
“Resist. That’s essentially what I think the world has to do right now, certainly Europe, certainly Canada. But resist in a way which does not bring down even more destruction.”
