Dublin, Feb. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The “United States Buy Now Pay Later Business and Investment Opportunities Databook – 90+ KPIs on BNPL Market Size, End-Use Sectors, Market Share, Product Analysis, Business Model, Demographics – Q1 2026 Update” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.
The BNPL payment market in United States is expected to grow by 19.1% on annual basis to reach US$127.94 billion in 2026. The buy now pay later market in the country has experienced robust growth during 2022-2025, achieving a CAGR of 23.8%. This upward trajectory is expected to continue, with the market forecast to grow at a CAGR of 15.1% from 2026-2031. By the end of 2031, the BNPL sector is projected to expand from its 2025 value of USD 107.38 billion to approximately USD 258.40 billion.
Competitive intensity will increase as banks deepen instalment capabilities and wallets embed issuer-based BNPL. Merchant bargaining power will remain high, leading providers to differentiate through underwriting quality, dispute-handling processes, and funding efficiency rather than price alone. BNPL delivery is expected to converge further with card and wallet infrastructure, reducing standalone differentiation and favouring firms with strong ecosystem partnerships.
Current State of the Market
- BNPL in the United States is defined by competition between specialist fintech providers, large payment platforms, and banks expanding instalment capabilities. Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay and PayPal remain widely integrated across ecommerce and marketplaces, while card issuers and digital wallets increasingly offer instalment features to retain spending within their ecosystems.
- Competitive intensity has risen as major retailers reassess provider partnerships, illustrated by Walmart’s shift away from Affirm toward Klarna in 2025, demonstrating that merchant decisions can materially influence market share. Wallet players and PSPs such as Apple Pay, Samsung Wallet and Stripe are shaping checkout availability, consolidating BNPL into broader payment-stack decisions.
Key Players and New Entrants
- Klarna, Affirm, PayPal and Afterpay remain central providers, supported by extensive merchant networks. Banks have strengthened their competitive role through card-linked instalment plans: JPMorgan, Citigroup and American Express now offer scheduling features that mirror BNPL’s repayment model.
- Apple repositioned its offering by discontinuing Apple Pay Later in 2024 and enabling bank-issued instalment loans within Apple Pay, shifting competition toward issuers integrated into the wallet. New entrants are limited, with competitive shifts stemming mainly from banks, private-credit partners, and embedded credit models rather than standalone BNPL startups.
Key Trends and Drivers
See BNPL move into the mainstream while concentrating on financially stretched borrowers
- BNPL has shifted from a niche online option to a mainstream credit tool in the U.S. Roughly one-fifth of consumers with a credit record used BNPL in 2022, and usage has continued to rise, with a significant share of adults now having tried at least one service such as PayPal Pay in 4, Affirm, Afterpay or Klarna.
- Holiday 2025 data shows BNPL volumes continuing to grow: U.S. shoppers used BNPL for about $10.1 billion in spending between early November and Cyber Monday, up around 9% year on year, with Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay and PayPal prominent at checkout. Heavy users often hold multiple BNPL loans from multiple providers, making BNPL a recurring part of household cash flow management rather than a one-off convenience.
- Higher living costs and higher interest rates on revolving credit have pushed consumers toward short-term instalment plans with clear repayment schedules. CFPB analysis shows BNPL users are more likely to have subprime or deep-subprime credit scores and higher balances on other unsecured debt, indicating BNPL is filling a gap for consumers who find traditional credit more expensive or harder to access.
- Merchants across sectors, from electronics to groceries, are promoting BNPL at checkout, as seen in holiday spending patterns, where essentials such as groceries and health products feature prominently in BNPL purchases.
- This payment method is likely to remain embedded in U.S. consumer finance, but future growth will mostly come from repeat usage and new applications (bills, services, travel) rather than first-time adoption. Providers will face pressure to refine underwriting to reduce default risk, manage borrowers with multiple concurrent loans to avoid overextension, and coordinate more closely with credit-reporting frameworks to address regulatory concerns.
- Executives should treat BNPL as a key part of an unsecured-credit strategy, carefully monitoring overlaps with cards and personal loans, and specializing offers based on risk and customer profiles.
Transitioning from usage trends, we now examine BNPL’s evolving regulatory and policy landscape.
- In 2024, BNPL moved closer to the regulatory perimeter for traditional credit products after the CFPB issued an interpretive rule classifying BNPL lenders as “credit card” providers under the Truth in Lending Act and Regulation Z. The rule required BNPL firms to provide credit-card-style protections such as billing statements, dispute-investigation procedures and refunds for returned goods. A 2025 brief from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond highlights this shift. However, in early 2025, the CFPB announced that it would not enforce the interpretive rule and signalled its intention to revoke it, leaving the long-term regulatory status of BNPL under TILA/Reg Z uncertain.
- By early 2025, the policy stance shifted: legal and regulatory commentary reports that the CFPB announced plans to revoke its 2024 interpretive rule and stated that it would not prioritize enforcement actions based on that rule, even as it continued broader supervision of BNPL.
- In parallel, a separate CFPB rule to cap credit-card late fees at $8, seen as relevant to BNPL-card competition, was struck down by a federal court in April 2025. Rapid BNPL growth and evidence of heavy usage among borrowers already carrying substantial unsecured debt have kept BNPL on the policy agenda as a potential driver of financial stress.
- At the same time, political and legal pushback against broader CFPB initiatives has led to reevaluation of some rules, including those that would treat BNPL exactly like credit cards.
- Policymakers are trying to balance consumer protection (disclosures, dispute rights, fair treatment) with maintaining access to short-term, low-fee credit tools that many consumers rely on.
- Credit-reporting and transparency standards for BNPL are likely to advance gradually, whether through formal rule changes, regulatory expectations, or industry efforts, leading to greater consistency. For providers and merchant partners, regulatory risk will increasingly focus on operational practices (complaint handling, hardship support, data usage) rather than whether this payment method is legally a ‘credit card.’ Firms that invest in robust compliance and clear customer journeys will be better positioned as the policy environment stabilizes.
Key Attributes:
| Report Attribute | Details |
| No. of Pages | 101 |
| Forecast Period | 2026 – 2031 |
| Estimated Market Value (USD) in 2026 | $127.94 Billion |
| Forecasted Market Value (USD) by 2031 | $258.4 Billion |
| Compound Annual Growth Rate | 15.1% |
| Regions Covered | United States |
Report Scope
United States Buy Now Pay Later Companies
- PayPal
- Afterpay
- Affirm
- Klarna
- Zip
United States Retail Industry & Ecommerce Market Size and Forecast
- Retail Industry – Spend Value Trend Analysis
- Buy Now Pay Later Share of Retail Industry
- Ecommerce – Spend Value Trend Analysis
- Buy Now Pay Later Share of Ecommerce
United States Buy Now Pay Later Market Size and Industry Attractiveness
- Gross Merchandise Value Trend Analysis
- Average Value Per Transaction Trend Analysis
- Transaction Volume Trend Analysis
- Market Share Analysis by Key Players
United States Buy Now Pay Later Revenue Analysis
- Buy Now Pay Later Revenues
- Buy Now Pay Later Share by Revenue Segments
- Buy Now Pay Later Revenue by Merchant Commission
- Buy Now Pay Later Revenue by Missed Payment Fee Revenue
- Buy Now Pay Later Revenue by Pay Now & Other Income
United States Buy Now Pay Later Operational KPIs
- Buy Now Pay Later Active Consumer Base
- Buy Now Pay Later Bad Debt
United States Buy Now Pay Later Spend Analysis by Business Model
- Two-Party Business Model
- Third-Party Business Model
United States Buy Now Pay Later Spend Analysis by Purpose
United States Buy Now Pay Later Spend Analysis by Merchant Ecosystem
- Open Loop System
- Closed Loop System
United States Buy Now Pay Later Spend Analysis by Distribution Model
- Standalone
- Banks & Payment Service Providers
- Marketplaces
United States Buy Now Pay Later Spend Analysis by Channel
- Online Channel
- POS Channel
United States Buy Now Pay Later By End-Use Sector: Market Size and Forecast
- Retail Shopping
- Home Improvement
- Travel
- Media and Entertainment
- Services
- Automotive
- Health Care and Wellness
- Others
United States Buy Now Pay Later By Retail Product Category: Market Size and Forecast
- Apparel, Footwear & Accessories
- Consumer Electronics
- Toys, Kids, and Babies
- Jewelry
- Sporting Goods
- Entertainment & Gaming
- Other
United States Buy Now Pay Later Analysis by Consumer Attitude and Behaviour
- Spend Share by Age Group
- Spend Share by Default Rate by Age Group
- Spend Share by Income
- Gross Merchandise Value Share by Gender
- Adoption Rationale
- Spend by Monthly Expense Segments
- Average Number of Transactions per User Annually
- BNPL Users as a Percentage of Total Adult Population
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/8keuwl
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- U.S. Buy Now Pay Later Market
