As the Andes version of hantavirus continues to cause concern among health officials, the music industry is monitoring what’s being called “blue dot fever.”
It’s nothing biological, nor will it be the cause of the next lockdown, but it is of concern.
The condition gets its name from online Ticketmaster seating charts for concerts at venues across North America. A blue dot indicates an unsold seat, and a quick survey of summer concerts features a lot of gigs that look like a bad case of Smurf measles.
For the couple of years immediately following COVID, business for the touring end of the music industry surged as we made up for lost time during the shut-in period in 2020-21. We called it “funflation,” a wave of spending on things that hadn’t been able to do.
Concert revenues exploded, with 145 million people attending gigs in 2023, compared to 98 million in 2019, before the pandemic. Last year, the global market for concert tickets was worth US$25.4 billion as stadiums and arenas worldwide were filled to capacity. And as 2026 started, predictions were that this would be another banner year.
Instead, we have blue dot fever, which, in some cases, has proven not just debilitating but fatal.
The Post Malone-Jelly Roll tour has been scaled back due to poor ticket sales. Pussycat Dolls pulled all their North American dates on their reunion tour. Zayn Malik abandoned all the American arena dates he had booked. Meghan Trainor cancelled her entire Get In Girl Tour. Kid Rock’s Freedom 250 tour hasn’t met expectations.
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We may yet hear of more tours collapsing. What’s going on? Weren’t we just complaining that no one could get a ticket to a show?
The economy
When prices spike and inflation roars, the first thing that gets cut is discretionary spending. Gas prices are way up, consumer confidence is down, employment remains shaky, and geopolitics make it impossible to predict where things are going from week to week. Corners have to be cut.
The cost of concert tickets
According to Pollstar, the bible of the touring industry, the average ticket price to see a top 100 touring artist in North America is US$134.23. That’s down 1.6 per cent from last year, but it’s still expensive. Globally, the average price is US$132.62. And if we look at stadium shows, the average price is US$216.13, a whopping 18.3 per cent higher than last year and 29 per cent higher than in 2023.
When the economy was cooking, you could make a case for spending that kind of money. Today, not so much. And once again, Ticketmaster does not set the price of concert tickets. The face value of a ticket is determined by the artist and the artist alone, basing it on how much the tour will cost to stage and how much money they hope to make.
The only way Ticketmaster makes any money is by charging a fee for its service. It gets nothing from the base price of a ticket. Hate them all you want, but Ticketmaster is not the problem here.
Thinning profit margins
Despite high ticket prices, margins that were razor thin to begin with are getting thinner, thanks to the high cost of touring. Energy prices aren’t helping. It costs a lot to keep a fleet of trucks on the road and diesel is in a worse spot than gasoline. When promoters, managers, and artists run profit and loss projections, they’re finding that dates need to be trimmed and venues downsized. In extreme cases, it’s better to just call off the entire tour.
Take the case of Welsh band, Los Campesinos!, who offered a recent accounting lesson in touring. They played 11 shows in America, selling out all but one, averaging around US$21,000 per gig. Gross revenue was US$127,729.53, but after costs, commissions, taxes, visa fees, and unbudgeted expenses were deducted, the band returned home to Wales US$2,824.98 in the red. And this is a band that didn’t suffer from blue dot fever.
Over-optimistic promoters, talent buyers, and managers
Every tour is a gamble. When 2026 tours were being planned, there was no US-Iran war, gas prices were stable, inflation wasn’t too bad, and employment was steady. So why wouldn’t the upward trends of 2023-25 continue? Swing for the fences!
But the moment world affairs began to get wonky, the economics of these tours changed. Jam up the Strait of Hormuz and what seemed like a sure thing during the planning stages in September-October-November of last year suddenly looks like a losing proposition. Do you tough it out and hope for the best? Scale back? Cancel?
Stiff competition
A lot of acts are once again on the road this year, but given the current state of economics, people are picking and choosing their spots. If, for example, you’re a superfan, you’ll still find a wait to scrape together $1,000 for a premium seat to see your favourite artists. That doesn’t leave much to spend on other shows. Maybe the World Cup and its 104 matches across North America is hurting concert ticket sales. I mean, have you seen what you have to shell out to get into some of these games? Then again, there are reports of blue dots there, too, thanks to high prices, the steep cost of transportation and hotels in host cities, and uncertainty about overseas fans navigating ICE in America.
The big acts will do fine. They always do because fans will always, always find the money. But below that upper crust, things are definitely looking very blue. At least so far.
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