Spring is always a volatile fight of a season where winter throws the early punches, but summer eventually gets the knockout at the end.
These wild swings make spring a difficult season to forecast in Canada, even more so this year as we transition from a weak La Nina to perhaps the first sign of a new El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean.
These changing water temperatures can impact the jet stream and weather patterns around the globe, but right now the signals are weak and unreliable.
Our medium and longer-range computer models give us forecasters the best clues as to what type of season we are in for.
Let’s look at what to expect this spring across Canada.
The snowpack in B.C. and western Alberta is running more than 25 per cent below normal as of early March.
There is hope that an active and stormy weather pattern will deliver more snow to these mountains in the weeks ahead and bring levels closer to normal before the big spring melt.
We are forecasting above normal spring precipitation and below normal temperatures this season, so a repeat of the recent explosive starts to the fire season appears less likely out west.
Temperatures will likely switch above seasonal by early June, and this could continue through the upcoming summer.
Back-and-forth cold and mild weather will be common throughout the month of April in the Prairies.
This pattern also favours several additional snow events before winter finally retreats to the north for good.
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We are not anticipating a major flood season this year.
As spring progresses, warmer-than-normal temperatures will creep north. This could mean an early start to the severe weather season as fronts are forced around a building ridge of high pressure in the U.S. Plaine States from late May into June.
The early signs point to a hot summer ahead.
After a record snowy February, recent warm spells and rain have reduced the snowpack across these two provinces.
We are not out of the woods for spring flooding, but a cooler-than-normal period in late March into April will lead to a more controlled melt of the remaining snow.
The weather pattern looks active this spring with above-normal precipitation from southern Ontario through Quebec.
Late season snow is still likely, but we don’t foresee a major late season freeze like we’ve had in past years.
The weather pattern turns warmer than normal in May and June, and this could mean an active start to the severe weather season which typically begins in May across southern Ontario and June in the province of Quebec.
Late March and early April will likely see a period of cooler-than-normal temperatures and potentially more snow, especially for New Brunswick.
Recent warmth and rain have reduced the snowpack in New Brunswick, which is good news for the spring flood outlook in that province and across the Maritimes.
Eventually, the weather pattern warms above seasonal, and a mild May and June are likely across the region.
The warmth will often be accompanied by showers.
Precipitation will trend above normal through the spring in New Brunswick and near season for Nova Scotia P.E.I and Newfoundland.
A colder-than-normal spring is likely across Yukon and the western part of the Northwest Territories with above-normal temperatures confined to Nunavut.
In our warming world, the largest temperature deviations on the warm side have consistently been around our planet’s poles over the past couple decades.
This leads to less ice growth in the winter and more melting in the summer.
Ice coverage in the Arctic is once again at record low levels heading into the spring season.
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