Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow holds a commanding, double-digit lead among decided voters, a new poll suggests, with just over two months to go until the municipal election.
A new survey by Liaison Strategies shows Chow at 49 per cent, with Coun. Brad Bradford in second place at 38 per cent. Former federal minister and late entrant to the race Chris Alexander would receive 11 per cent of the vote if the election were held tomorrow.
“The ballot has moved back toward a clearer Chow advantage,” David Valantin, principal at Liaison, said.
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Chow has been Toronto mayor for three years, winning a 2023 byelection after former mayor John Tory resigned. She won that election in a crowded field, which included Bradford, who has since emerged as her main challenger.
Valentin said Bradford had a path to victory in October’s election — including strong support in Etobicoke — but stressed that Chow remains in charge.
“Bradford’s challenge is that his vote is real, but narrower,” he said. “Among decided and leaning voters, he leads men 47 per cent to 39 per cent and leads in Etobicoke 56 per cent to 34 per cent. Chow leads women 58 per cent to 29 per cent, downtown 59 per cent to 27 per cent, North York 51 per cent to 35 per cent, and Scarborough 46 per cent to 37 per cent.”
Further positive news for Chow in the poll is a minor improvement in perception of how the city is currently being run. Liaison’s poll shows 48 per cent of people think Toronto is heading in the right direction, compared with 45 per cent who feel the direction of travel is negative.
Toronto’s mayoral election will be held on Oct. 26, while the deadline for nominations to enter is Friday.
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