A Russian opposition politician and prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin says the war in Ukraine is “backfiring” on the regime at home, with signs of falling domestic support as the Kremlin’s army stalls on the battlefield.
In an interview with Global News on Friday, Vladimir Kara-Murza — who has survived multiple alleged poisoning attempts and was freed from a 25-year Russian prison sentence for protesting the war in a 2024 prisoner exchange — said mounting military and economic failures have stripped away Putin’s strongman image and exposed him as “increasingly weak.”
“I think it is becoming increasingly clear to everyone that this war has really backfired on the Putin regime,” he said in Ottawa, a day after testifying in Parliament in favour of legislation that would toughen Canada’s foreign sanctions regime.
“We know from our own history in Russia that these failed wars of aggression always end up backfiring against the regimes that started these wars, and in the end lead to very serious political changes inside the country. And I think it’s becoming increasingly clear in the last few weeks this is exactly what’s happening in Russia.”
In a Washington Post opinion article this week, Kara-Murza cited a recent poll by the independent Levada Center that found 62 per cent of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, while only 27 per cent support continuing the war, now in its fifth year.
While Kara-Murza noted accurate polling is difficult to obtain in Russia due to the “fear factor” perpetuated by the Kremlin, he suggested the actual number of those supporting peace talks is likely far higher.
There have been growing reports of economic hardship in Russia as its wartime economy stagnates, despite increased oil revenues amid the war in the Middle East. Inflation is high and the Kremlin has raised taxes to keep its budget deficit under control.
Internet shutdowns in Moscow and other cities have furthered discontent after some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin began openly criticizing government policies.
Meanwhile, increasing Ukrainian drone attacks have put Russian troops on the back foot while striking deeper into the country, targeting energy facilities and military outposts.
The fear of a Ukrainian attack in Moscow itself forced Putin to scale down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, normally a massive show of military strength and regime support.
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Putin has sought to turn the tide by sharply increasing attacks on Ukraine, including a massive overnight barrage Friday that saw a Russian drone veer off course and strike an apartment building in Romania — a NATO ally — near the Ukrainian border, injuring two people.
Ukraine has said it is preparing for more attacks, including on Kyiv, where the Kremlin warned foreign diplomats to evacuate this week.
“I think that (warning) is going to be a very important piece of evidence, frankly, for a future tribunal where Putin and his henchmen will one day find themselves sitting in the stocks and being held accountable for all the horrendous crimes that they have committed, including during the course of this war,” Kara-Murza said.
The Levada poll was released ahead of parliamentary elections in September, where the Kremlin is once again moving to keep antiwar voices off the ballot by targeting leading members of Russia’s sole remaining opposition party, Yabloko, with administrative and criminal charges — including personal friends of Kara-Murza.
“The best way to assess the situation (in Russia) is actually by looking at the behaviour of the regime,” he said. “And we see that the Kremlin is incredibly afraid of allowing even the most cautious, the most moderate antiwar voices on the ballot in Russia at any level.”
While those efforts may be successful, he added, “What is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin is to maintain that pretense, both for domestic and for international audiences, that Putin’s war in Ukraine is overwhelmingly supported by the Russian public. It is increasingly evident to everybody that that claim is simply false.”
Kara-Murza said he not only hopes but is confident that he will soon be able to return from exile to his home country and witness the fall of the Putin regime and the return of democracy to Russia.
He said the democratic opposition should start preparing now for that transition.
“We know from Russian history that major political changes in our country usually happen … swiftly, suddenly, and completely unexpectedly,” he said.
“We have no right to squander the next opportunity for democratic transition in Russia, the way that opportunity was squandered back in the 1990s. This model of change could come in three years, it could come in two weeks, but what we do know is that when that window of change opens, it will be very brief.”
Bill Browder, a financier and activist for tougher sanctions regimes who testified alongside Kara-Murza at Thursday’s House of Commons foreign affairs committee, told Global News in an interview Thursday that the Russian people will be looking for new leaders if and when the Putin regime falls.
Opposition figures like Kara-Murza “are the people who could probably step in,” he said.
“What I’ve learned about Vladimir and about other members of the Russian opposition is that the amount of sacrifice they’re willing to make to try to bring normalcy to their country is superhuman,” Browder said.
“It’s a very dangerous place to be against Vladimir Putin. But in fact, the more he reacts to it, the more you know that he’s on the ropes.”
Kara-Murza and Browder are calling on Parliament to pass legislation that, among other measures, would add transnational repression as a sanctionable offence under Canadian law and require annual government reports that list “prisoners of conscience” held by foreign states.
Kara-Murza told Global News the law would send a powerful message to regimes like Putin’s and should be part of a renewed international push to pressure the Kremlin towards negotiations to end the Ukraine war.
“Aggressors do not stop until and unless they’re stopped, and it is high time that the free world stops Vladimir Putin,” he said.
“For as long as Russia remains a dictatorship, it will always be a threat not just to our own people, but also to everybody outside. … The only real way to ensure long-term peace, stability and security in Europe and in the world at large is to have Russia become a normal, civilized, democratic nation.”
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