Fertility rates have been declining for decades, but the drop has accelerated sharply over the past 20 years, and researchers are still trying to fully explain why.
Now, new research suggests a device that has come to define modern life may be playing a role: the iPhone.
The smartphone, first released in 2007, coincides with a turning point in birth trends in the United States and elsewhere. That timing prompted U.S. economist Caitlin Myers of Middlebury College in Vermont to investigate whether the two could be connected.
“It’s a fascinating question. Why are births plummeting?” Myers said in an interview. “In the United States, births have fallen by almost a quarter since 2007.”
Her research looks at whether increased screen time and the shift toward digital interaction may be reducing in-person contact, indirectly leading to fewer pregnancies.
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To test the idea, Myers analyzed birth rates across U.S. counties in the early years after the iPhone’s release. At the time, the device was only available through AT&T, meaning some regions had access while others did not.
By comparing those areas and controlling for factors such as income, education and contraceptive policy, she found birth rates dropped more quickly in places where the iPhone was available.
“We observed that births fell much faster in the places where you could get an iPhone,” Myers said.
The theory is simple: more time spent online could mean less time spent together in person. “It’s hard to get pregnant when you’re not in person with somebody,” she told Global News.
Fertility rates are now well below replacement levels in many countries. In the United States, the rate sits at roughly 1.6 children per woman. In Canada, it is even lower, at about 1.25.
And the trend is not limited to wealthy nations. Declining birth rates are being recorded around the world.
Still, experts caution that smartphones are unlikely to be the sole or even primary cause.
The 2000s brought a number of major social and economic shifts that are widely believed to be contributing to the so-called “baby bust.” These include the global financial crisis, rising housing costs, higher levels of education and broader access to contraception.
Celia Chandler, a writer who documents her experience being “childless by choice,” says it may be a stretch to draw a direct line between technology and people deciding not to have children.
“I do think it might be a bit of a stretch to say that technology is preventing people from having children,” she said.
Chandler argues one of the most important changes in recent decades is that more people, particularly women, feel empowered to choose whether or not to become a parent.
“I feel very fortunate that I was born at a time when I had a choice,” she said.
Researchers acknowledge that the iPhone itself is unlikely to explain such a complex global trend on its own, but say it may be part of a broader shift in how people connect, form relationships and structure their lives.