Critics are questioning the solidity of Saab’s pitch to deliver 10,000 jobs in Canada if it decides to set up shop here to assemble Gripen fighter jets.
The Swedish company has said little about how it came to that number, making it hard to evaluate the offer.
Saab spokesperson Jenny Gerdes said the estimate reflects the “scale of work” the company anticipates bringing to the country, “should the Gripen be selected.”N
“The figure is based on projected global demand for Gripen and the corresponding production, sustainment and R&D activities Canada would undertake,” Gerdes said in an email.
“The details of the industrial program and the associated modelling are part of ongoing discussions with the government of Canada, so we’re not in a position to share specific breakdowns,” she added. “However, the estimate aligns with established industry benchmarks and what we know Canadian firms can support.”
Saab has production lines in Sweden and Brazil and has proposed creating a new production hub in Canada or elsewhere in Europe to cope with growing demand for its jets around the world, including in Ukraine.
Ottawa is reviewing its plans to acquire up to 88 F-35 stealth fighters from American manufacturer Lockheed Martin — a contract that Saab sought before it was awarded to Lockheed Martin in 2022.
Richard Shimooka, an F-35 proponent at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute think tank, dismissed Saab’s jobs figure as “completely unrealistic.”
“They’ve created a media ecosystem that has Canadians fully believing that this aircraft will give you 10,000 jobs and will export (jets) out to Ukraine,” he said, adding that figure would be larger than Saab Aerospace’s entire workforce in Sweden.
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“This is all make-believe.”
Conservative defence critic James Bezan, who has supported the F-35 purchase, has called the review unnecessary and warns it threatens Canadian jobs in the F-35 supply chain.
Bezan told the Commons defence committee Thursday that Brazil’s partnership with Saab has only led to several hundred domestic jobs, “not the numbers that get thrown around here.”
Saab’s CEO Micael Johansson told The Canadian Press in November that it takes a long time to ramp up production and Brazil hasn’t even delivered its first aircraft yet.
He said Canada would end up with around 9,000 to 10,000 direct and indirect jobs “on a continuous basis for decades to come,” though a Canadian production hub would take three to five years to set up.
Johansson also insisted his firm is not pushing the idea on the Carney government — although he confirmed it would be predicated on Ottawa purchasing a fleet of Gripen jets.
“We’re not campaigning,” Johansson said. “We will answer questions and give information that is requested by the Canadians or the politicians and agencies that is part of this evaluation that your prime minister initiated.”
U.S. President Donald Trump‘s trade war and his comments about making Canada a U.S. state spurred Prime Minister Mark Carney to launch a review of the F-35 procurement back in March.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly ramped up speculation about the review when she said last month that the Liberal government believes Canada did not get enough out of the F-35 deal.
“The industrial benefits are not enough. There needs to be more jobs created out of the F-35 contract. That’s clear to me and clear to this government,” she said.
A spokesperson for her department, Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, said it can’t share the details behind Saab’s estimate because it doesn’t have the information.
“The 10K job estimate has been developed by the company. ISED does not have any details on the methodology underlying the estimate,” department spokesperson Justin Simard said in an email.
When the company was bidding on the contract a few years ago, it offered to create 6,000 jobs. That offer came with a promise to stand up research-and-development aerospace centres in the Montreal area.
Academics have said there’s not enough information available to allow them to weigh in on Saab’s offer with certainty.
Philippe Lagassé, an associate professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, said it’s not clear “what assumptions (the figure) rests upon.”
Ugurhan Berkok, a defence economist at the Royal Military College, said he’s skeptical.
“I’m not against the collaboration with Saab, but I’m just judging the numbers — 10,000 seems to be very high,” Berkok said. “Down the road, perhaps. If we get into bed with Saab and we assemble the aircraft here.”
He said the Canadian defence sector employs about 60,000 people overall, with more than half of them directly involved in defence.
Craig Stone, an emeritus associate professor of defence studies at Canadian Forces College, said there are a number of ways the numbers could be modelled or constructed.
“I would want to see how they came up with the data,” he said.
Defence Minister David McGuinty said Thursday the government’s review of the fighter jet procurement is still ongoing and is taking place as the government prepares to receive the F-35s.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, McGuinty said Canada was one of the original eight countries involved in the F-35’s development.
“We know that if Canada isn’t part of that family … it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for Canadian companies to participate in the contracts,” McGuinty said in French.
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