Prime Minister Mark Carney is on the verge of turning his minority government into a majority, a possibility that lies in the results of three byelections Monday.
It’s been seven years since the Liberals enjoyed a majority of seats in the House of Commons, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau — who came into power with a majority government in 2015 — lost seats in the 2019 federal election and was reduced to a minority.
Since then, the party has had to rely on opposition votes and confidence agreements to survive and pass legislation, which under Trudeau was often shaped by compromise with parties like the NDP.
The Liberals under Carney won 169 seats in last year’s federal election. With the latest floor-crossing from the Conservatives by MP Marilyn Gladu this week, the party now holds 171 seats — just one shy of the 172-seat majority threshold.
While crossing that threshold could make Carney’s political life easier, experts say there will still be ways for the opposition, the public and even Liberal MPs to keep the prime minister in check.
“The same mechanisms of responsible government will still be in place,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia.
Here’s what that could mean in practice.
If the Liberals win just one of Monday’s three byelections, they would have 172 seats and meet the official threshold for a majority — one that is thin, but functional.
However, one of those Liberal MPs is Speaker of the House of Commons Francis Scarpaleggia, who only votes on legislation and motions in the event of a tie.
Because a functional majority would see both the Liberals and the combined opposition parties with 171 voting members on each side, the government would have to rely on the Speaker to break those ties.
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Although Scarpaleggia is a Liberal, he’s not required to vote with the government as Speaker, who will normally vote to “maintain the status quo,” according to Parliamentary procedure. That could mean preventing the government from falling in a matter of no confidence, but also to keep debate open on legislation to allow for a majority of MPs to pass it in the future.
If the Liberals win two of the three byelections Monday, they will hold 173 seats, and 174 seats if they win all three byelections, which would let them pass legislation without needing to rely on the Speaker or on any other parties to support them.
The Parliament of Canada website notes that “most majority governments finish their standard four-year term in office between federal elections.”
That doesn’t mean Carney can get fully comfortable, Prest said. Even if the Liberals reach 174 seats, that will still be a slim majority.
“Mr. Carney still has to keep that majority together, he still has to keep the votes within the Liberal caucus on his side,” he said.
“If Mr. Carney really seemed to be no longer serving the interests of the party and Canadians, then there would be conversations within that Liberal caucus, and at the extreme, there would a confidence vote.”
And, just as multiple MPs have crossed the floor from the Conservatives and NDP to the Liberals since December, that possibility exists in the other direction as well.
“There are some more independently-minded Liberal MPs,” Prest said. “And clearly, if a member was willing to cross the floor to the Liberals, if things don’t go the way that they expected, they may choose to cross the floor again, or perhaps sit as an independent.”
Dissent has already shown up in the Liberal caucus under Carney, such as when former heritage minister Steven Guilbeault left cabinet last year in protest over the memorandum of understanding with Alberta on energy policy.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on Thursday warned Canadians against the possibility of giving Carney “unchecked power” through a majority, which he said was formed by “dirty backroom deals” with floor-crossing MPs.
One reason Prest said he disagreed with the “unchecked power” claim is the current makeup of parliamentary committees, which must review every piece of legislation that passes first and second readings in the House of Commons.
Currently, committees reflect the minority government in the House, meaning opposition members narrowly outnumber the Liberals.
That has allowed the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois to band together and stall high-profile government bills on immigration, hate crimes and other issues over various concerns.
If the Liberals win a majority on Monday, however, that minority committee structure would remain the same. In order to change it, Carney would have to prorogue Parliament and start a new session that would restructure the committees with a majority of Liberals on each panel.
Carney said he was “absolutely not” considering such a move when asked by reporters this month, adding the possibility “has never even entered my thinking.”
“As long as the committee membership remains the same … there is a real avenue for for influence to ensure that legislation gets through that committee phase of review before it returns to the House of Commons for the third reading of the vote,” Prest said.
Even if Carney does end up proroguing Parliament and changing the committee structure, Prest said opposition members can still collectively influence legislation in a “collaborative spirit.”
If the Liberals decide to ignore that collaboration, he said the opposition can still use the “ultimate check” on politics: public opinion.
“They can bring those kinds of issues up with the population and say the Liberal government is not doing what they promised to do, not doing what Canadians are expecting,” he said.
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