Germany Buy Now Pay Later Business Report 2026: Market to Grow by 16.6% to Reach $83.46 Billion – Forecasts to 2031

Dublin, Jan. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The “Germany Buy Now Pay Later Business and Investment Opportunities Databook – 90+ KPIs on BNPL Market Size, End-Use Sectors, Market Share, Product Analysis, Business Model, Demographics – Q1 2026 Update” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.

The BNPL payment market in Germany is expected to grow by 16.6% on annual basis to reach US$83.46 billion in 2026.

The buy now pay later market in the country has experienced robust growth during 2022-2025, achieving a CAGR of 24.1%. This upward trajectory is expected to continue, with the market forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.7% from 2026-2031. By the end of 2031, the BNPL sector is projected to expand from its 2025 value of USD 71.58 billion to approximately USD 145.43 billion.

Over the next 2-4 years, competitive dynamics will shift toward regulated, bank-linked and processor-led instalment models. CCD II implementation will raise compliance thresholds, favouring larger incumbents. Zinia, Klarna, and PayPal are positioned to retain scale, while banks and networks will gain ground in card-based instalments. Market consolidation is likely, with smaller providers integrating into banking or processing ecosystems.

Current State of the Market

• BNPL in Germany is characterised by competition among invoice-based payment providers, pan-European BNPL firms, bank-led instalment products, and payment processors embedding instalments at checkout. Klarna, PayPal, and Ratepay remain central to online retail, while Santander’s Zinia has expanded its role through partnerships with merchants in electronics and home goods.
• German banks have increased activity through card-linked instalments, reflecting a shift towards regulated instalment models ahead of the implementation of CCD II. Competitive intensity remains high as merchants optimise payment stacks to reduce reliance on single BNPL providers and diversify risk exposure.

Key Players and New Entrants

• Klarna continues to anchor the market with broad merchant coverage across fashion, general retail, and electronics. Ratepay serves major merchants, including Otto Group, and is strengthening its position under Nexi ownership. PayPal’s Pay Later is widely integrated across German ecommerce, especially among SMEs.
• Santander’s Zinia expanded during 2024 through retail partnerships in Germany and Spain, supported by Santander’s balance sheet. New entrants mainly come from financial institutions and payment processors, Mastercard’s instalment adoption by German banks, and Adyen expanding its instalment capabilities for German merchants, rather than standalone BNPL fintech launches.

Merchants Accelerate Migration from Invoice-to-Instalments at Checkout

• German e-commerce has historically relied on invoice-based payments, but merchants are increasingly shifting to structured instalment options offered directly at checkout. Providers such as Klarna, Ratepay (owned by Nexi), and PayPal have expanded instalment availability across fashion, electronics, and home goods. Large merchants, including Otto Group and Zalando, have added or expanded instalment options to reduce returns and improve conversion during periods of cautious discretionary spending.
• Retailers face pressure from slower online growth and rising logistics costs, pushing them to improve conversion and reduce failed payments. Klarna’s updated underwriting tools (announced in 2024) and PayPal’s strengthened instalment proposition in Europe enable more reliable credit decision-making, making instalments less risky for merchants accustomed to invoice defaults. The shift toward EU-wide regulatory alignment (CCD II implementation) encourages providers to offer more transparent, structured instalments rather than open-invoice models.
• The migration from invoice to instalments will continue as merchants rationalise payment stacks and reduce operational costs tied to invoice returns and collections. Instalment share at checkout is expected to rise, especially in high-ticket verticals. However, traditional invoices will remain for segments such as older consumers and catalog shoppers, resulting in a dual-track payment environment.

Regulation Tightens Credit Assessment and Transparency Obligations

• German BNPL providers are preparing for the implementation of the revised EU Consumer Credit Directive (CCD II), which expands credit rules to cover short-term and interest-free instalments. Providers operating in Germany, such as Klarna, Ratepay, PayPal, and Santander’s Zinia, are updating their affordability checks, disclosures, and dispute-resolution processes. Media coverage in 2024 highlighted BaFin’s close supervision of credit-granting practices, particularly around behavioural scoring and data use.
• EU-level policy is moving toward harmonised consumer credit standards to address concerns about overextension and arrears in digital payments. Political debate in Germany, including Bundestag discussions on consumer protection in digital credit (late-2024), has reinforced expectations for stronger oversight. Increased scrutiny of cross-border BNPL players operating under EU passporting has led to more structured risk frameworks.
• Compliance costs will rise, favouring established providers with scalable underwriting infrastructure. Smaller or niche BNPL firms may exit or partner with regulated financial institutions. The market will consolidate around players capable of meeting uniform EU standards, and standardised credit checks will likely temper approval rates for high-risk segments.

Banks and Card-Issuers Expand Instalment Capabilities to Defend Market Share

• German banks and card issuers, including Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Sparkassen, and Volksbanken, have expanded card-linked instalment or post-purchase conversion features. Visa and Mastercard have rolled out instalment APIs in Europe, enabling banks to embed BNPL into existing cards.
• Banks aim to retain relevance amid competition from fintech BNPL providers and maintain customer engagement within credit-card portfolios. Card networks see instalments as a strategic counterweight to account-to-account solutions such as SEPA Instant, which reduce card volume. Retailers increasingly prefer bank-issued instalments to reduce BNPL-specific merchant fees and limit reliance on single fintech providers.
• Card-linked BNPL will grow steadily, particularly for in-store purchases and recurring categories. Banks will capture a larger share of instalment volume for mid- to high-income customers. Fintech BNPL providers will still dominate online retail, but bank-BNPL will become the standard fallback option across broader demographics.

BNPL Integrates With Return-Reduction and Customer-Retention Strategies

• German retailers are linking BNPL with returns management and loyalty features to address high return rates, particularly in fashion. Zalando has tested processes that synchronise instalment schedules with return windows. Klarna expanded its “one-click returns” and delivery-tracking features in 2024, integrating repayment management with logistics updates. This creates a more predictable cash-flow experience for both customers and merchants.
• Germany’s return rates are among the highest in Europe, creating operational strain for merchants, and BNPL can delay payment finalisation. Retailers want to reduce working-capital volatility associated with returned products when instalment plans are active. Competitive pressure from Amazon’s simplified returns processes has encouraged German merchants to refine the post-purchase journey.
• BNPL will evolve from a pure payment method into a broader post-purchase management tool. Providers that can link credit, logistics, and refunds will gain stronger merchant integration. Over time, BNPL-linked return optimisation may reduce retailers’ costs and improve consumers’ repayment behaviour.

Recent Launches, Mergers, and Acquisitions

• Notable activity includes Santander’s continued rollout of Zinia in Germany, supported by its earlier acquisition of specialised BNPL assets in Europe. In 2024, Klarna released enhanced credit underwriting and subscription features to improve repayment predictability.
• PayPal expanded the availability of its Pay Later product for German SME merchants by updating its integration tools. Nexi deepened its investment in Ratepay to strengthen its e-commerce positioning in Germany. No major new BNPL-specific acquisitions were announced in 2024, but payment processors expanded instalment capabilities through product updates rather than M&A.

Reasons to Buy

• Strategic and Innovation Insights: Gain clarity on the future direction of Germany’s Buy Now Pay Later market by analysing strategic initiatives, business model evolution, and innovation-led approaches adopted by key BNPL providers to strengthen market positioning.
• Comprehensive Understanding of BNPL Market Dynamics in Germany: Assess market size, growth outlook, and structural shifts across retail and e-commerce, supported by detailed segmentation by channel, business model, distribution model, merchant ecosystem, end-use sector, and consumer demographics, underpinned by 90+ KPIs.
• Value and Volume-Based KPIs for Market Accuracy: Leverage a robust set of value and volume KPIs, including GMV, average transaction value, transaction volume, active users, revenue, and bad debt, to develop a precise understanding of BNPL adoption, usage intensity, and market maturity.
• Competitive Landscape Assessment: Obtain a clear snapshot of the BNPL competitive landscape in Germany, including market share analysis of leading providers, enabling informed benchmarking and evaluation of market concentration and competitive intensity.
• Actionable Inputs for Market Entry and Expansion Strategies: Identify high-growth categories, priority end-use sectors, and distribution channels to fine-tune go-to-market and partnership strategies, while assessing key trends, regulatory considerations, and risk factors shaping the BNPL ecosystem.
• In-Depth Consumer Behaviour Analysis: Enhance ROI by understanding evolving consumer attitudes and spending behaviour, with insights into BNPL adoption drivers, usage frequency, income and age-based usage patterns, gender splits, and monthly expense segmentation.

Key Attributes:

Companies Featured

• PayPal
• Klarna
• RatePay
• Riverty

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/wwbvs0

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• German Buy Now Pay Later Market