Political signs have begun to pop up in Winnipeg, as campaigning for the federal election is officially underway.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney called the election on March 23. Canadians have about a month to decide their vote before heading to the polls on April 28.
Manitoba has 14 federal ridings, eight of which are in Winnipeg. Recent riding redistributions mean some voters may be casting ballots in a new area this year.
Curtis Brown with Probe Research expects some of those ridings to see close races.
“I think three months ago, we would have been talking about which, if any, seats the Liberals were going to keep,” Brown said.
“Now, we’re talking about potentially ones where it could be quite competitive between the Liberals and Conservatives, or the Conservatives and the NDP, or the Liberals and the NDP.”
One of those ridings is Winnipeg West (formerly Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley). Doug Eyolfson held the seat for the Liberals from 2015 until 2019, when Conservative Marty Morantz was elected. In the 2021 federal election, Morantz kept his seat by 460 votes.
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Brown is also watching Elmwood-Transcona, which elected the NDP’s Leila Dance in a September byelection. Conservative Colin Reynolds placed second, and Liberal Ian MacIntyre came in third.
“It’s been, historically, an NDP seat, but it’s one that the Conservatives should have a pretty good shot at because they’re running the same candidate they ran last time,” he said.
Brown says the Conservatives are likely to hold onto the five rural southern Manitoba ridings. On Sunday, Conservative MP for Brandon-Souris Larry Maguire announced he will not seek re-election due to health reasons — but Brown says that is unlikely to change the seat.
“By and large, the ones [ridings] outside Winnipeg… vote Conservative by pretty high margins,” he said. The exception is the Churchill—Keewatinook—Aski riding in the north, where the NDP’s Niki Ashton has held the seat since 2008.
Many Winnipeggers Global News spoke to Monday said their top concern was the trade war with the United States.
“I think I’m thinking more about who will be the best candidate to deal with Trump more than what necessarily they’ll do for Canada,” said Winnipeg South Centre voter Kim Ewert.
“To be honest, you can’t think about anything except the tariffs,” said Richard Schram, who lives in the Winnipeg West riding, adding he’s still undecided.
While he can’t vote, international student Shrey Talati agrees the tariffs are a factor in who he hopes wins the election.
“We definitely need someone who knows economics,” he said.
Brown calls the Winnipeg South riding a “bellwether.”
“It’s still one that, historically, seems to vote with whichever party forms government,” he said.
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