An Ontario MP’s floor crossing appears to have caught Pierre Poilievre’s team flat-footed and gives the Conservative leader no time to rally his troops until late January.
Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma shocked Ottawa Thursday evening by announcing he would join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s caucus, bringing the Liberals to just one seat shy of a majority mandate.
The news came as a surprise to Poilievre and his team, who just the night before had welcomed Ma to the Conservative party’s holiday get-together. With MPs now scattered across the country until late January, Poilievre is in the uncomfortable position of wondering if any more of his team will use the holiday break to test the waters for a potential jump.
“The timing (of Ma’s decision) was catastrophically bad for Conservatives, because you can’t bring everyone in and (say), rah, rah, everything is OK,” said one senior Conservative source, granted anonymity to discuss internal party politics.
“I think the question a lot of MPs will be getting over the next few weeks is what’s wrong with your leader, what’s going on that your own caucus members, your own MPs don’t like your leader?”
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“And a lot of MPs might start getting questions from their constituents (about) when are (they) going to do something?”
The source predicted that Carney will have a majority by spring 2026 “one way or another,” meaning they expect at least one more Conservative MP to join the Liberal government.
“Sounds like MPs are panicking and no one really knows what to do.… They are calling one another looking for direction and next steps and no one seems to have the answers. Everyone is just waiting for the next shoe to drop,” a second Conservative source said.
“The real situation is what does (Poilievre) do when the next one crosses and the Liberals get a majority. How does he have a mandate to stay on?”
Poilievre is down three MPs over the course of the fall session of the House of Commons – Ma and fellow former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals and Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux to a surprise early retirement.
Jeneroux, a 44-year-old MP representing a safe Conservative seat in Edmonton, was widely reported to be in talks to join the Liberal government before announcing his retirement from federal politics. Since he announced his decision to retire, he has missed multiple key votes in the House of Commons.
A third source close to Poilievre downplayed Ma’s departure on Friday, saying the move was “weird.” Ma’s Markham-Unionville riding used to be solidly Liberal when represented by former MP John McCallum, but has changed hands between the Conservatives and Liberals in recent elections.
“It just doesn’t make sense,” the source said.
“The polls are strong, the polls are good, Carney is not exactly doing gangbusters.… This is just a weird situation, I don’t know what to say.”
The source said they were not sure what Poilievre could’ve done differently to keep Ma in the fold. Another source agreed – but for different reasons.
“You’re right, there’s nothing Pierre could do to stop the bleeding other than leave,” the source said.
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