Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday acknowledged that “our emissions will be higher in the next few years” as he pivots Canada’s energy strategy to re-embrace oil and gas, but said it will help unite the country long-term.
The comments in a pre-recorded video released on Carney’s YouTube channel — the latest in his “Forward Guidance” series aimed at speaking directly to Canadians about his government policies — were his clearest criticisms to date of his predecessor Justin Trudeau’s climate policies.
They also served as an olive branch to Alberta, as the province contends with a separatist movement that was in part fuelled by backlash to federal efforts to restrain the Alberta oil industry in favour of cleaner energy sources.
“I want to be clear on this point: the changes we have made will mean that our emissions will be higher in the next few years than they were projected to be under the previous government’s plan,” Carney said in the video.
“But in my judgment, that plan was not sustainable over the long term.”
He said the “well-intentioned” Trudeau-era policies, including caps on greenhouse gas emissions and oil production as well as the consumer carbon price, would have further driven up prices for Canadians struggling with affordability and made Canada less attractive for foreign exports and investment.
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“And it would have been too divisive for our country,” he added. “In the current environment, the old plan was an open opportunity for those people who wish to pull Canada apart both at home and from abroad.”
Albertans are set to vote in a referendum in October on whether the province should remain a part of Canada or pursue a future ballot question on separation. Carney has compared the issue to Brexit in the U.K., warning of negative reverberating consequences.
Federal officials from all parties have been campaigning in favour of Alberta remaining in Canada, with Carney confirming to reporters Tuesday he will spend part of Canada Day in the province.
Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, has sought to restore relations with Alberta since becoming prime minister last year, in part by negotiating a new energy agreement, which includes laying the groundwork for a new oil pipeline to the West Coast.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s office has promised a “major announcement” on Thursday to share new details about the province’s submission for the pipeline project to the federal major projects office.
Steven Guilbeault, a climate activist who served as Trudeau’s environment minister, resigned from Carney’s cabinet and then from the House of Commons as he watched many of the policies he championed get rolled back.
Under the Paris climate agreement, Canada committed to reducing its emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from the 2005 level by 2030. Carney has said repeatedly that Canada is still committed to that target, but he hasn’t said how it can achieve it.
A government progress report released in December 2025 showed that Canada’s best-case scenario model had the country achieving only a 28 per cent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels in 2030.
A study in February by the Canadian Climate Institute suggested Canada is not on track to meet any of its climate targets — the 2026 interim emissions reduction target, the 2030 Paris Agreement commitment and the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.
Carney said in Tuesday’s video that it was most important to build a “strong, united country working together in our common interest,” as Canada seeks to diversify from the U.S. and build a more resilient economy.
He said the new pipeline and other energy projects being pursued will boost exports to other international markets, and that infrastructure will be built sustainably and with low emissions in mind.
“The truth is, nobody knows how long the global economy will rely on conventional energy,” Carney said. “But while it does, as much of that energy as possible should come from Canada.”
Under the Ottawa-Alberta energy accord, Ottawa’s support for the new West Coast pipeline is contingent upon the building of the massive Pathways carbon capture and storage project that would offset some of the emissions impact from increased oilsands production.
Carney said sustainability will also be prioritized as Canada increases electricity infrastructure through its electricity and nuclear energy strategies to double national electrical capacity by 2050.
The strategies call for building out an interconnected grid powered by a mix of energy sources including nuclear, oil and gas, wind and solar.
— with files from The Canadian Press
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