All eyes will be on three federal byelections in April as a sweep by the Liberals could put them in razor-thin majority territory.
Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday called byelections for the Ontario ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne. The votes will be held April 13.
The two Ontario ridings are those once held by former ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, respectively.
Blair was appointed to be Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom, while Freeland stepped down after taking on a voluntary role as advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Freeland is also taking the helm as CEO of the Rhodes Trust educational charity starting in July.
People in Scarborough may be watching to see if former provincial NDP deputy leader Doly Begum holds the long-time Liberal stronghold. Begum triggered a wave of political activity last month when she made the shock announcement she would resign from the Ontario NDP to run in this byelection for the federal Liberals.
But it’s the Quebec riding of Terrebonne that will be a focus point for many, after Liberal Tatiana Auguste lost her Montreal-area seat when the Supreme Court of Canada invalidated last year’s election result.
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Elections Canada declared Auguste the winner over the Bloc-Quebecois’ Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne by a single vote following the April 28 federal election.
Sinclair-Desgagne challenged the results when a supporter complained she had tried to vote by mail using a special ballot that was never counted. She won her case at the top court on Feb. 13.
Following the ruling, the Bloc announced Sinclair-Desgagne as their candidate and the Liberals officially nominated Auguste the same week, setting up a face-off once again.
The stakes could be higher on April 13, as the Liberals are three seats shy of the 172 seats needed for a majority government.
If they win all three byelections, that would put them at 172. Yet they could still run into difficulty as the Speaker of the House is a Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia. He would only vote with his party on matters of confidence to keep the House running. To maintain impartiality, House Speakers typically do not vote on legislation.
The Liberals have been able to get so close to a majority, in part, due to three Conservative MPs crossing the floor to join the government. Chris d’Entremont joined in the fall, with Michael Ma becoming a Liberal prior to the Christmas break. Matt Jeneroux also crossed last month after initially saying last fall he planned to resign his seat altogether.
Should the Liberals win Scarborough Southwest, University-Rosedale and Terrebonne, they would still need one more floor-crosser in order to have a working majority and be able to pass legislation without the support of another party.
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