Apple is almost certain to launch its first foldable iPhone tomorrow, seven years after Samsung’s Galaxy Fold initially went on sale. And while Apple might be a few years late to the party, the run-up to this launch proves that new CEO John Ternus has inherited a company that’s as influential as it’s ever been.
Tomorrow’s iPhone event is likely to be a little different than what we’re used to. For one, the arrival of some iPhone 18 models will likely be delayed — the Pros will be available first, but the regular 18 is supposedly set to launch early next year instead. But leaks and rumors have consistently suggested that Apple will instead pair the release of its Pros with the first foldable iPhone, which is likely to be short, squat, and wide, about the size and shape of a passport.
If you’ve been following the phone industry this year, that should sound a little familiar. Samsung, Huawei, and most recently Xiaomi have all released passport-shaped foldables over the last few months, creating an emerging form factor that looks likely to stick around, with Oppo and Honor also tipped to have similar products in the works.
You might — not unreasonably — ask what Apple’s got to do with this. After all, Huawei’s Pura X Max launched back in April, Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 in July, and Xiaomi’s 18 Fold yesterday. The foldable iPhone hasn’t even been officially teased yet, let alone announced, so how could these Android OEMs possibly have copied it?
We’ll never know for certain which manufacturer landed on the idea of a wide foldable first, but there is good reason to think it was Apple. The company has reportedly been working on a foldable iPhone since at least 2017, with leakers tipping the smaller, wider form factor as early as February 2025. Apple’s formidable supply chain — perfected by former CEO Tim Cook — is slow-moving at the best of times, and by the time leakers knew what was coming, it’s likely industry rivals did too. Samsung in particular has probably known of Apple’s plans for some time, since it’s reportedly the manufacturer of the foldable display panel inside the new iPhone.
Besides, this is hardly the first time Apple has had this sort of influence. Last year, the iPhone Air triggered a similar early imitation in Samsung’s Galaxy S25 Edge, not to mention other thin and light phones from the likes of Honor, Huawei, and Tecno. Or how about laptops, where March’s MacBook Neo just prompted a string of cheap and often colorful alternatives from the likes of Lenovo, Dell, and Acer. I’m not suggesting that other manufacturers are entirely unoriginal, but they know that when Apple creates a new market, you don’t want to miss out (with rare exceptions — the lack of imitators suggests that just about everyone could tell the Vision Pro wasn’t likely to be a winner).
And there’s little reason to think the major Android players were about to force a change themselves. After seven years of Android foldables, the market has been fairly predictable, outside of the slow arrival of trifold models. Most manufacturers settled into producing phones in the same Flip and Fold form factors that Samsung established, and until Apple’s arrival, there had been little sign of change. If anything, Android manufacturers had been moving away from this direction — early foldables from Oppo and Google were closer in shape to the new wide folds, though a little less extreme, but both manufacturers left those designs behind in order to conform to the norms established by Samsung. The main thing that’s changed since then is Apple’s imminent arrival.
And Apple entering the foldable market is important. Despite years’ worth of products, Counterpoint estimated that in 2025 foldables made up just 1.6 percent of all smartphone sales. These are niche by any measure. But the same report estimates that shipments will grow by 20 percent this year, with Apple claiming a 28 percent share after just a few months on the market. Apple’s arrival could push the category closer to the mainstream, as it did with others in the past, and Android OEMs are attempting to align themselves to take advantage.
From Apple’s perspective, this launch matters for another reason: It’s John Ternus’ first hardware release as CEO. Ternus is a hardware guy, and as the company’s former head of hardware engineering, he can take some responsibility for Apple’s products holding the influence that they do. The test for Ternus will be to maintain that influence, to combine his hardware expertise with the marketing, supply chain, and services sides of Apple to ensure that five, ten years down the line, Apple still has the influence to reshape whole markets simply by entering them.