Leading figures in the push for Alberta separation are celebrating the election of Quebec premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Jeffrey Rath said Tuesday that St-Pierre Plamondon’s election victory could change the political dynamic of Canada, especially since the premier-designate has already shown his willingness to support Alberta’s separatist movement.
“For the first time in Canadian history, we have a government in Quebec that supports Alberta independence,” Rath said in an interview.
St-Pierre Plamondon and the separatist Parti Québécois are set to form a minority government after Monday’s election in Quebec, which saw the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec wiped from the assembly.
The premier-designate has pledged to hold what would be Quebec’s third separation referendum, but he’s said it won’t happen until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.
During a visit to Calgary last year, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would recognize an independent Alberta should the province vote to separate.
Rath said he had met with the Party Quebecois leader in Calgary. He said the pair, who are both lawyers, talked for three hours over dinner and have maintained contact since.
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“I’ve gotten to know him relatively well over the last year. I think people are going to be very surprised at how well he governs,” Rath said.
Cory Morgan, an online commentator and separatist advertiser in the upcoming Alberta referendum, also said the premier-designate was an ally and that his victory bodes well for Alberta’s movement.
“I believe it’s in the interest of independence movements on both sides of the country to … maintain pressure and instability on the federal system,” Morgan said.
On Oct. 19 Albertans will vote on whether they want to remain in Canada or hold a second, binding vote on quitting Canada.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the vote earlier this year citing two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate that both received hundreds of thousands of signatures. Smith has said she supports Alberta staying in Canada and that she will vote accordingly.
Smith congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on Monday in a social media post, saying she’s looking forward to working with his government.
“Our provinces and our country are stronger when we work together, stand united and build a stronger future for all Canadians,” Smith wrote.
Smith didn’t address the issue of separation in her congratulatory note, nor did Prime Minister Mark Carney in his own social media post.
Morgan said he thought the two leaders were ignoring the elephant in the room.
“People are kind of dodging that fact that, whether you like it or not, even if that wasn’t the prime driver in this provincial election, Quebec just elected an overtly separatist party to be their government,” he said.
“That’s significant, and that’s going to make a difference in policy in the next two to four years.”
Rath, a fierce critic of Smith for putting off a binding separation vote, also said he took inspiration from St-Pierre Plamondon’s path to victory.
The Party Quebecois saw much of its electoral support come from outside of Quebec’s two major cities and it managed to form government despite an overall vote share of about 28 per cent.
Rath said he thought something similar could happen in Alberta should Smith’s United Conservative Party fracture over the separation issue.
Smith has been adamant that her party, government and caucus are committed federalists, but in recent weeks the premier has seen calls for a leadership review come from two of her UCP constituency associations.
Rath said despite the premier’s assurances that the UCP isn’t a separatist party, he thinks rank-and-file members who want Alberta to go its own way represent a “supermajority” within the party.
“I think this is going to be really interesting for Alberta politics,” Rath said.
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