As Albertans get set to head to the polls next week, one political expert is saying she sees no real threat to Canadian unity, but the results of the referendum may be challenging to interpret.
“I don’t see why these are referendum questions at all,” Grace Skogstad, a professor emeritus in the department of political science at the University of Toronto told Global News.
Albertans will be given 10 ballots for 10 different questions. The first nine questions are related to immigration and the Constitution.
The last question asks whether or not the Government of Alberta should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she hopes Albertans vote yes to the first nine questions to give her some leverage to negotiate with the federal government.
But Skogstad said the Alberta government doesn’t have the full authority to act on some of the constitutional questions.
Question seven asks voters if they support Alberta working with other provincial governments to abolish the Senate.
“The Senate has to approve, it has a veto over whether it’s going to be abolished or not so you can work with other provinces all you want on that one because ultimately it would be the Senate that’s going to decide there,” Skogstad said.
She said other questions are very broad and may be challenging for Albertans to vote yes or no.
Question four asks voters if they support the government charging fees for non-permanent residents to access healthcare and education systems.
“There’s two questions there. One is about health care, and one’s about education. So what do you do if you’re a voter and saying, ‘okay, well, I think they should definitely be able to get access to the education system, but maybe not to the health’,” Skogstad said.
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“The results will be difficult to interpret, in my view.”
Skogstad said separation movements are typically based around national grievances, like Quebec’s focus on language and culture. But Alberta’s referendum is largely based around economic grievances.
“I’ve always thought that economic grievances are matters to be settled by public policy,” she said. “You elect a government that can go and negotiate with another, in this case, the Government of Canada.”
She added that the entire process of holding a referendum is one that is “very disruptive.”
“What we’re seeing here now is that you’ve got the province being divided amongst itself,” Skogstad said.
The choice to separate would also have repercussions for the rest of Canada.
In his Thanksgiving video message from Alberta, Prime Minister Mark Carney said separation would be a “long, uncertain process” at a time when Canada as a whole “is working.”
At the beginning of October, the Government of Canada listed the Pacific Link pipeline as a project of national interest.
The pipeline, which would be equally owned by the governments of Canada and Alberta, would transport oil from Edmonton to a deep-water terminal off the coast of B.C. for export to Asian markets.
“We can’t achieve any of this if we are divided,” Carney said in his message.
The Prime Minister’s press secretary told Global News in a statement Monday that Carney is expected to be in Alberta in the coming days “to deliver a pro-Canada message of unity.”
Advanced polls open Tuesday
Elections Alberta has been working around the clock to prepare for what could be a very large number of voters.
Michelle Gurney, a spokesperson for Elections Alberta, told Global News they have received 650,000 special ballot requests, compared to 59,000 for the 2023 provincial general election.
An Ipsos poll conducted for Global News in September found a strong majority (76 per cent) of Albertans are aware there are several questions in the upcoming referendum. Eighty-one per cent of Albertans said they plan to vote in the referendum with 62 per cent saying they will vote on all 10 questions.
In 2023, 60 per cent of Albertans took to the polls.
To accommodate the influx of voters, as well as a larger number of ballots, Elections Alberta has hired more than 44,000 election workers. Gurney said they will continue to hire up until election day Oct. 19.
John Brennan, an Edmonton-based political analyst, told Global News he believes most Albertans have already made up their minds on how they will answer each question, but the logistics around voting could prove challenging.
“The only thing I can see hindering people from voting on the 19th is if they show up at the polls, say 5 or 6 o’clock and they see a long lineup out into the street and go ‘oh, I can’t do that.’”
Advanced voting begins Tuesday and Gurney said getting out to vote early could help curb the chances of being stuck in long lineups.
“There’s five days of advanced voting from Oct. 13 to Oct. 17 and look for the off-peak times like mid-morning after lunch,” Gurney said. “We tend to see more of a rush after dinner so we encourage people if you are concerned about how long you’ll be at the voting location to just consider the time that you can show up.”
Gurney said bringing your voter card can help speed up the process, but any registered voter can vote with a piece of ID.
Advanced voting locations can be found on Elections Alberta’s website.
– With files from Jazan Grewal and Jasmine King
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