Nearly half of those in Canada’s North see the U.S. under President Donald Trump as the greatest threat to Arctic security, new polling data suggests.
The polling, conducted for researchers at Quebec’s Observatoire de la politique et la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA), asked residents in Nunavut, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavik for their views on which countries pose the biggest threat, and suggests “heightened anxiety.”
Close to half of respondents (48 per cent) saw the U.S. as the greatest threat to the region, followed distantly by countries more traditionally seen as Canadian adversaries like Russia (30 per cent) and China (12 per cent).
That’s up from 37 per cent who said the U.S. posed the greatest threat last September, followed by Moscow (35 per cent) and Beijing (17 per cent).
“It’s really surprising to see that number so high,” said Mathieu Landriault, OPSA’s director, in an interview with Global News on Monday.
“I think it really supports this vision that we need to develop (Arctic) capabilities and, if push comes to shove, without the U.S. involved or with as little involvement by the U.S. as possible.”
That Canada’s erstwhile closest ally was viewed as the most significant security threat was both surprising and not, Landriault said. For generations, Canada and the U.S. have closely cooperated on northern security and continental defence, with the former Soviet Union as their main adversary.
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But despite Russia’s willingness to wage war on neighbouring Ukraine, Trump’s rhetoric around the annexation of Canada and threats over Greenland have clearly rattled citizens in the North. It also might explain why northerners told OPSA that they want the federal government to take a hard line on any border or resource ownership disputes with other countries.
A clear majority, 60 per cent, of respondents said that Canada should take a “firm line” in defending its sections of the Arctic, compared to just 26 per cent that felt its better to “negotiate a compromise.”
The polling was released at a time when the federal government has renewed its focus on Canada’s North, both in terms of infrastructure investments and the possibility of expanded resource extraction.
It also comes as Canada explores greater cooperation with the European Union, including in the Arctic. In her state of the union speech last week, EU President Ursula von der Leyen suggested the Arctic would become a “flagship joint project” between the EU and Canada.
“Globally … northerners have a positive perception of European countries,” Landriault said.
“What we see, however, from northern respondents when we asked them what would be the preferred approach if there are disputes in the Arctic … compromise, or let’s negotiate and strike a compromise in the Arctic region, is not the first reflex, it’s not what (northerners) want Ottawa to do.”
“That being said, I think most people see partnerships as desirable if there are no disputes,” Landriault added.
The possibility of a conventional military threat to Canada’s Arctic remains remote, experts have told Global News — although troubling reports out of Europe over the weekend raised the spectre of Russian aggression towards NATO member states.
The Guardian newspaper, citing three European intelligence officials, reported on Sunday that the continent’s spy agencies have considered the possibility of “imminent” action by Russia to test the NATO alliance.
The newspaper pointed to recent comments by Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, that a Russian incursion on allied territory could seek to prove that Article 5 — NATO’s assurance of mutual assistance if a member is attacked — is “more theoretical than practical.”
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that the threat of Russia “hybrid attacks” on France and European countries has intensified in recent weeks.
“The intention behind it is to intimidate us and to derail the effort to support the Ukrainians. The consequence will be the opposite,” Macron told reporters, according to the France 24 news outlet.
“We are not intimidated, because we know that what is at stake today in Ukraine is our security.”
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